Greece vs Scotland: betting odds 20 Mar 2025

In the autumn, Greece came close to pulling off a major shock—they nearly overtook England in their Nations League group, which would have secured direct promotion to the elite division. They are the underdogs in this play-off against Scotland, but at home, the Greeks are more than capable of putting up a fight.

During the Nations League group stage, Greece conceded just four goals in six matches—all of them against England (2:1 and 0:3). Their stunning victory at Wembley caused a stir, with Benfica striker Vangelis Pavlidis scoring twice and making the most of his side’s modest 0.74 xG and just three shots on target. Against a defensive Finland (2:0), Greece deployed a disciplined 4-2-3-1 formation, not allowing a single shot on goal.

Before the November international break, Scotland were struggling in their group campaign, collecting just one point from their first four matches. Their victories over Croatia (1:0) and Poland (2:1) were far from dominant—across both games, they produced just 2.36 xG over 180 minutes. The lack of a top-class striker has been a recurring issue, affecting both creativity and finishing. In March, Steve Clarke’s tactical approach is unlikely to change: Scotland will rely on aerial deliveries into the box while maintaining a deep defensive line.

At a packed Karaiskakis Stadium, Greece will enjoy more possession. Scotland are unlikely to take risks, meaning the battle for a place in League A will likely be decided in the return leg.